Match Analysis: Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Alex G. Spanos Center, Stockton
Game Overview
The upcoming match features the Pacific Tigers hosting the Long Beach State 49ers. Pacific starts the season 1-1 with a solid home court advantage, while Long Beach State is 0-2, coming off a close loss to Nevada. Pacificβs offensive efficiency, shooting accuracy, and rebounding are statistically superior to Long Beach Stateβs. The Tigers are favored heavily on moneyline and spread, reflecting their better season start and home form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pacific Tigers show stronger shooting percentages (47% FG, 38% 3P) and control the glass better (30 rebounds vs 24.5). They have fewer turnovers (7.5 vs 18) and a more effective offensive flow. Long Beach State struggles from the field at 34%, with a low 3P percentage (18%) and higher turnovers negatively impacting their scoring opportunities.
- Recent head-to-heads favor Pacific with the Tigers winning both encounters in 2018 and 2019 by solid margins. The Tigers have a historical winning percentage of 100% over Long Beach State in past matchups at home.
- No notable injuries reported for either side that would significantly affect the starting lineups or game plan.
- Pacific hosts the game at Alex G. Spanos Center, utilizing home court advantage with local crowd support. The time zone and travel distance favor Pacific, as Long Beach State faces away conditions.
- Pacific aims to capitalize on their home advantage to improve their record to 2-1, while Long Beach State, seeking a first win, may adopt a high-intensity defensive approach to disrupt Pacificβs rhythm.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pacific Tigers: -610, Long Beach State 49ers: 440 | Pacific Tigers to win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Pacific Tigers: -9.5 -120, Long Beach State 49ers: +9.5 -102 | Pacific Tigers to cover -9.5 points | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 144.5: -115, Under 144.5: -105 | Under 144.5 points total | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pacific Tigers -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 144.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 144.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pacific Tigers are strongly favored to win this game given their superior form, efficiency, and home advantage.
Predicted Score: Pacific Tigers 78 – Long Beach State 64