Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (8-5-2) host the New York Rangers (8-7-2) in an Eastern Conference matchup. Both teams are in the middle of the standings with similar records, making this a competitive divisional encounter. The Lightning are favored at home with strong recent form, while the Rangers look to bounce back from recent struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay Lightning show stronger metrics with a 2.53 goals allowed per game (4th in league) and 89.58% penalty kill efficiency. The Rangers struggle offensively, averaging 2.41 goals per game (31st in league), and have a weaker 80.43% penalty kill. The Lightning's defensive prowess and home-ice advantage present a significant edge. Recent form shows the Lightning winning their last two games (6-3 vs Vegas, 3-2 vs Washington), while the Rangers won 6-3 against Nashville but suffered a 5-0 loss to the Islanders.
- Limited recent matchup data available in search results, though another game is scheduled between these teams on November 29, 2025.
- No specific injury information provided in available data.
- The game will be broadcast on TNT, providing mainstream coverage. Playing at home in Tampa provides the Lightning with crowd support and travel advantages over the visiting Rangers.
- The Lightning are motivated to maintain their winning streak and solidify their position in the standings. The Rangers face pressure to reverse recent inconsistent results and prove they can compete against strong opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lightning -150 | Rangers +120 | Tampa Bay Lightning Win | β β β ββ 63% |
| Spread | Lightning -1.5 (165) | Rangers +1.5 (-210) | Lightning -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 6 (-112) | Under 6 (-112) | Under 6 | β β β ββ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Tampa Bay Lightning are expected to win this matchup. With superior defensive metrics, better recent form, home-ice advantage, and stronger special teams play, Tampa Bay should control the game. The Rangers' offensive struggles and weaker penalty kill create opportunities for the Lightning to capitalize.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 2