Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Flamengo, currently 1st in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, hosts Vasco da Gama, ranked 15th. Flamengo has a strong historical record and better recent form, with a home advantage at Maracanã.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo won 3, lost 2 in last 5; averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Vasco won 1, drew 2, lost 2; averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
- In 82 matches since 2004, Flamengo holds the edge with 36 wins to Vasco's 18, and 28 draws. Recent H2H shows Flamengo with 3 wins and 3 draws in last 6 meetings, no Vasco wins.
- No critical injuries reported for either side affecting starting XI availability or key players.
- Game at Maracanã benefits Flamengo with home crowd support. No adverse external conditions currently impacting the match.
- Flamengo motivated to maintain top spot and home dominance; Vasco under pressure near relegation zone aiming for points to improve standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | flamengo: -280, vasco_da_gama: 750, draw: 375 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | flamengo_-1.25: -122, vasco_+1.25: 102 | Flamengo -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | over_2.5: -120, under_2.5: 100 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo moneyline win
Predicted Score: 2-0