Match Analysis: Longwood Lancers vs James Madison Dukes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Joan Perry Brock Center, Farmville, VA
Game Overview
James Madison Dukes (2-1) travel to face the Longwood Lancers (1-1) in a non-conference NCAA Division I men's basketball matchup. James Madison enters with a solid start to the season, while Longwood looks to bounce back after a 78-60 loss to Pittsburgh. This game features two teams establishing their early-season form, with James Madison showing more consistency through three games compared to Longwood's inconsistent 1-1 record.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Madison averages 75.0 PPG (251st nationally) on 42.5% FG, 33.0% from three, and 83.0% FT. They pull down 37.7 RPG and rank 22nd nationally in assists with 48 on the season. Turnovers are a concern at 14.0 per game with 19.3 fouls committed per contest. Longwood averages 76.0 PPG with 41.7% FG (284th nationally), 74.1% FT, and 41.5 RPG. They average 10.5 assists (323rd nationally) and commit 23.5 fouls per game with 13.5 turnovers per contest. Longwood's last outing saw them collect 30 total rebounds against Pittsburgh with 10 steals but couldn't overcome a 78-60 defeat.
- No recent head-to-head data is available from the search results for this matchup.
- No injury report information is currently available for either team.
- James Madison plays as the away team at a neutral non-conference location, which may provide a slight disadvantage. Longwood plays at home (Joan Perry Brock Center), which typically provides court familiarity and crowd support. The game timing (7:00 PM ET Wednesday) is a standard evening slot with no unusual scheduling circumstances.
- James Madison seeks to maintain momentum with a 2-1 record and establish themselves as a competitive force. Longwood needs a confidence-building win after the disappointing loss to Pittsburgh to improve their 1-1 record and validate their home-court advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | JMU: +110 | Longwood: -130 | James Madison Dukes Moneyline | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | JMU: +1.5 (-108) | Longwood: -1.5 (-112) | James Madison Dukes +1.5 | β β β ββ 59% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 (-105) | Under 153.5 (-115) | Under 153.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Longwood Lancers 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 -4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Longwood Lancers at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Madison Dukes are favored to win this matchup. Despite Longwood's home-court advantage, James Madison's superior record (2-1 vs 1-1), better shooting consistency (42.5% FG vs 41.7%), elite free throw shooting (83% vs 74.1%), and significantly better assist distribution (ranked 22nd vs 323rd nationally) provide tangible advantages. While Longwood matches up competitively on rebounds (41.5 vs 37.7) and has shown defensive potential with 10 steals in their last game, James Madison's overall offensive efficiency and ball movement should prevail in a close contest. The game projects as competitive with James Madison winning by a possession or two.
Predicted Score: James Madison Dukes 74, Longwood Lancers 72