Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Siena Saints – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: St. Bonaventure, NY
Game Overview
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies host the Siena Saints in a midweek non-conference matchup, both teams entering the game undefeated. St. Bonaventure has shown strong offensive efficiency and depth, while Siena has been solid defensively but struggles with three-point shooting. The Bonnies are favored at home, with the spread set at 8.5 points and the total at 140.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Bonaventure averages 79.0 points per game, shooting 44.5% from the field and 77.1% from the free-throw line. They are ranked 158th in assists (16.0 per game) and average 43.0 rebounds. Siena averages 72.0 points per game, shooting 43.5% from the field and 20.0% from three. They average 40.5 rebounds and 30 assists for the season. St. Bonaventure has a higher offensive efficiency (1.184 vs. 1.038) and better effective field goal percentage (51.2% vs. 46.0%). Siena’s defense is strong, allowing only 68.2% free-throw shooting and forcing turnovers at a high rate (22.8% of opponent possessions).
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but St. Bonaventure has historically held an edge in the series, especially at home.
- Siena is missing Reid Ducharme (shoulder). St. Bonaventure is missing Xander Wedlow (lower leg) and Achille Lonati played limited minutes due to injury. Amar'e Marshall also saw limited action in the opener. These absences could impact depth and rebounding for both teams.
- St. Bonaventure is playing at home, which typically provides a boost in performance and crowd support. The game is early in the season, so both teams are still developing chemistry and adjusting to new rotations.
- Both teams are undefeated and will be motivated to maintain their records. St. Bonaventure, as the higher-ranked team, will be looking to assert dominance, while Siena will be aiming to prove itself against a stronger opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -410, away: 320 | St. Bonaventure Bonnies | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | home: -8.5, away: 8.5 | St. Bonaventure Bonnies -8.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over: 140.5, under: 140.5 | Under | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure Bonnies 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 140.5 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 140.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Bonaventure is favored due to superior offensive efficiency, depth, and home-court advantage. Siena’s defense is solid, but their lack of three-point shooting and the absence of key players make it difficult to keep pace. The Bonnies are expected to win and cover the spread, with the game likely to stay under the total due to Siena’s defensive style and St. Bonaventure’s potential for turnovers.
Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure Bonnies 83 – 65 Siena Saints
