Match Analysis: Auxerre vs Toulouse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Game Overview
Auxerre hosts Toulouse in a Ligue 1 match with both teams struggling for consistency early in the season. Auxerre has a poor recent form but a strong home handicap record, while Toulouse is also facing recent defeats but shows potential for an away upset.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auxerre holds a 1-3 record in their last 5 games with only 3 goals scored in 4 games, placing them 15th in the table. Toulouse also has recent losses but appears more balanced offensively and defensively with ability to exploit Auxerre’s vulnerabilities.
- Recent H2H shows a 2-2 draw between the teams, indicating competitive and balanced encounters.
- Auxerre’s first-choice goalkeeper Donovan Léon's suspension has ended but midfielder Josué Casimir is suspended. No significant injury issues reported for Toulouse.
- Playing at home benefits Auxerre, who has covered home handicaps in 16 of their last 17 home matches despite scoring issues. Public betting heavily favors Auxerre but home form has not translated into wins.
- Auxerre needs to improve their position with only 3 points from 4 games, and a home win would be vital. Toulouse aims to break their losing streak and prove competitive away, motivating them to seek at least a draw or upset.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Auxerre: +171, Toulouse: +165, Draw: +215 | Toulouse | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Spread | Auxerre: 0 -108, Toulouse: 0 -112 | Toulouse +0 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -125, Under 2.25: +105 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toulouse 14% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toulouse moneyline to win
Predicted Score: 1-2