Match Analysis: Maryland Terrapins vs Alcorn St Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: XFINITY Center, College Park
Game Overview
Maryland Terrapins host Alcorn State Braves in a non-conference matchup. Maryland enters with a 1-1 record, coming off a home loss to Georgetown, while Alcorn State is 0-3 and winless on the road. Maryland is heavily favored, with a spread of -30.5, and the total is set at 151.5 points. The game is expected to be a defensive battle, with both teams struggling offensively in recent outings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Maryland has shown inconsistency, averaging 71.5 points per game and allowing 65.5 points per game. Their offense is shooting only 35.5% from the field, and their last game was a 70-60 loss to Georgetown. Alcorn State has been outscored significantly, averaging 65.3 points per game and allowing 93 points per game. They have lost their last three games by an average of 29 points.
- Maryland won the last meeting 96-58. Maryland has a strong record against non-conference opponents, winning 17 of their last 17 Tuesday games and 18 of their last 19 first halves at home. Alcorn State has lost 35 consecutive road games against non-conference opponents.
- Maryland is missing key players: Solomon Washington (ankle) and Rakease Passmore (Achilles). Myles Rice is coming off the bench after an ankle injury. Alcorn State has no reported injuries.
- Maryland's home court advantage at XFINITY Center is significant, with a strong record in non-conference games. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with both teams' recent games averaging under 145 points. The public betting is overwhelmingly on Maryland, with 100% of bets on the Terrapins.
- Maryland is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Georgetown and establish momentum early in the season. Alcorn State is seeking its first win and trying to end a long road losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maryland -300, Alcorn State +250 | Maryland | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Alcorn St Braves +30.5 -112, Maryland Terrapins -30.5 -108 | Alcorn St Braves cover | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5 -110, Under 151.5 -110 | Under | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Maryland is expected to win, but their offensive struggles and Alcorn State's ability to cover large spreads make the Braves a strong candidate to cover. The game is likely to stay under the total due to both teams' recent low-scoring trends and defensive matchups.
Predicted Score: Maryland 82, Alcorn State 62