Match Analysis: Providence Friars vs Pennsylvania Quakers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, Rhode Island
Game Overview
The Providence Friars (1-1) host the Pennsylvania Quakers (1-1) in a heavily lopsided matchup where Providence enters as overwhelming favorites. The Friars are favored by approximately 17.5-19.5 points depending on the book, reflecting their superior position despite both teams carrying identical 1-1 records. Providence is coming off a road loss to Virginia Tech (107-101 OT), while Pennsylvania suffered a road defeat to American Eagles (84-78). This is a significant disparity in implied probability, with Providence given a 96-98% chance to win the game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Providence averages 95 points per game (61st nationally) while allowing 93 points per game (341st defensively), indicating a balanced but vulnerable defensive profile. Pennsylvania's offensive output has been 98.5 points per game compared to 78 points allowed per game, suggesting stronger defensive metrics. Providence shoots 47.1% from the field (153rd) and 30.5% from three (230th), with 80.8% free throw accuracy (29th). Jason Edwards leads Providence with 19.5 PPG, followed by Jaylin Sellers (19 PPG) and Stefan Vaaks (18 PPG). Providence's home record stands at 1-0, while Pennsylvania is 1-0 at home as well, both teams being 0-1 on the road.
- In their most recent head-to-head matchup, Pennsylvania defeated Providence 81-75, demonstrating that the Quakers are capable of competing with the Friars despite current odds suggesting otherwise. This historical context provides value consideration against the extreme spread.
- No specific injury information is provided in the available data.
- Both teams enter this matchup off recent losses, which could impact confidence levels. Providence's loss came in overtime on a neutral court against a strong Virginia Tech team, while Pennsylvania lost at home to American Eagles. The neutral-site loss is less damaging psychologically than Pennsylvania's home court loss.
- Providence has motivation to bounce back at home after an emotional overtime loss, while Pennsylvania seeks to prove last game's loss was an aberration. However, Providence's home advantage and superior seeding in preseason projections should provide significant motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Providence -2800 | Pennsylvania +1300 | Providence Friars Win | 96-98% |
| Spread | Providence -19.5 (-105) | Pennsylvania +19.5 (-115) | Providence -19.5 (slight value lean to Pennsylvania +19.5) | Providence covers: 68% | Pennsylvania covers: 32% |
| Over/under | Over 170.5 (-115) | Under 170.5 (-105) | Under 170.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Providence Friars 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 170.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 170.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Providence is heavily favored to win this matchup and should cover the spread, though the extreme odds present reduced value. The Quakers' previous 81-75 victory over Providence suggests some competitive balance not fully reflected in current lines. Pennsylvania will likely keep this closer than the spread indicates, making them a potential value play for bettors willing to take underdogs. The total is projected to go under, as neither team has demonstrated explosive offensive capacity through two games.
Predicted Score: Providence 87, Pennsylvania 71 (Providence by 16 points)