Match Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs Lamar Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
Game Overview
The TCU Horned Frogs (1-1) host the Lamar Cardinals (1-0) in a non-conference matchup. TCU is coming off a dominant home win against Saint Francis (PA), scoring 104 points, while Lamar opened their season with a 40-point victory over Texas A&M-San Antonio. TCU is heavily favored, with sportsbooks estimating a 97% chance of a TCU win[2]. The last head-to-head meeting was a 77-66 TCU victory. The over/under line reflects expectations for a moderate-scoring game, with recent TCU home games trending over the total[1][2].
Key Factors to Consider
- TCU has shown strong offensive performance at home, scoring 104 in their last outing and averaging a high pace of play. Lamar had an impressive debut, but against lesser competition. The strength of schedule favors TCU, who have faced better opposition early in the season[2].
- TCU won the last meeting 77-66. Historical data is limited, but TCU has the advantage in recent head-to-head matchups[2].
- No major injuries reported for either team, according to available data. There is a generic reference to 'CMalick Diallo Knee,' but no details are provided on impact or availability for this game[6].
- The venue is favorable for TCU, with two of their last two home games going over the total. Motivation is high for both teams to build early-season momentum, but TCU's depth and home-court advantage are significant factors[1][2].
- TCU aims to solidify their record with another home win, while Lamar looks to prove they can compete against a Power 5 opponent on the road. TCUβs recent blowout win could give them additional confidence[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lamar: 1280, TCU: -3500 | TCU wins | 97% (based on sportsbook implied probability) |
| Spread | Lamar: +18.5 -114, TCU: -18.5 -106 | Lamar covers +18.5 (narrowly) | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: 147.5 -105, under: 147.5 -115 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs 1239% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: TCU Horned Frogs at 1239% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 96.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
TCU is the clear favorite to win, likely by a double-digit margin, but Lamar's early-season form suggests they could cover an 18.5-point spread if their defense holds. The total is set at a moderate level, with recent TCU home games trending over, but Lamarβs pace and potential defensive focus could keep the score under the line[1][2][7]. Confidence is highest in TCU winning outright and covering the spread, but the over/under is a closer call with a slight lean toward under[1][2][7].
Predicted Score: TCU 80 – Lamar 70