Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Falcon Stadium
Game Overview
The Air Force Falcons host the Boise State Broncos in an intriguing Mountain West matchup. Both teams enter the game with an identical 1-1 record, but Boise State is favored heavily by bookmakers, reflecting their stronger overall team and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boise State has shown a more balanced and effective offensive and defensive effort compared to Air Force, who rely on a run-heavy scheme but have struggled defensively and in conference play, holding a 0-1 conference record.
- Recent H2H matchups favor Boise State, with multiple wins by double-digit margins. Air Force's option offense has been contained successfully by Boise State in prior meetings.
- No major injuries reported for either team that would significantly impact starting lineups or key positions.
- The game is played at Air Force's home stadium in Falcon Stadium, potentially giving Falcons a slight home advantage; however, Boise State's superior talent appears to outweigh this.
- Both teams are motivated early in the season to secure a strong start within their conference, but Boise Stateβs higher preseason expectations and returning experienced players give them a competitive edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: +295, Boise State Broncos: -375 | Boise State Broncos | β β β β β 80% |
Spread | Air Force Falcons: +10 -108, Boise State Broncos: -10 -112 | Boise State Broncos -10 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 51.5: -105, Under 51.5: -115 | Under 51.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 51.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State Broncos to win on the moneyline, cover the 10-point spread, and the total score to go under 51.5.
Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 28 – Air Force Falcons 14