Match Analysis: Villarreal vs CA Osasuna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de la Cerámica
Game Overview
Villarreal hosts CA Osasuna in a La Liga clash with Villarreal currently ranked 6th and Osasuna 9th. Villarreal has a strong historic advantage and home form, but recent goal-scoring struggles reduce their edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal has not scored in their last two matches but scored 8 goals in their last 5 overall. Osasuna remains unbeaten in the last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws) and shows defensive solidity with only 0.6 goals conceded per match recently.
- In their last 6 meetings, Villarreal has not lost to Osasuna (4 wins, 2 draws) and leads the overall H2H record with 16 wins vs Osasuna's 12 in 35 games since 2003.
- Key Villarreal players Gerard Moreno, Logan Costa, Pau Cabanes, and Willy Kambwala are injured, potentially weakening their attacking options. Osasuna miss Moi Gomez due to injury but have fewer absences impacting starting lineup.
- The match at Villarreal's Estadio de la Cerámica provides a home advantage. Villarreal's recent Champions League and La Liga fixtures might contribute to fatigue, impacting performance.
- Villarreal aims to maintain their top-6 standing and bounce back after recent losses, while Osasuna looks to continue their unbeaten streak and close the points gap in the table.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal -181, CA Osasuna +460, Draw +330 | Villarreal | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Villarreal -1 (-108), CA Osasuna +1 (-112) | Villarreal -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-120), Under 2.5 (+100) | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal moneyline win
Predicted Score: 2-1