Match Analysis: San Diego St Aztecs vs Idaho State Bengals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Game Overview
The San Diego State Aztecs host the Idaho State Bengals in a non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. San Diego State is heavily favored, boasting a dominant home record and strong defensive statistics, while Idaho State arrives with momentum from recent road wins but a history of losses against non-conference opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State has started 1-0 this season with a 77-45 home win showing strong defense (18th in points allowed nationally, allowing only 38.3% FG%). Idaho State is 2-0 overall with competitive scoring (74.3 points/game) but weaker defense (64.6 points allowed). San Diego State has a +32 point differential at home, indicating dominance. Idaho State has won their last three road games but generally struggles against non-conference teams.
- San Diego State has won 20 of its last 21 non-conference games at Viejas Arena, while Idaho State has lost 40 of its last 47 non-conference games. San Diego State consistently wins first halves at home, contrasting with Idaho Stateβs road first half wins. Both teams' recent games suggest relatively low total points.
- No current information on injuries affecting either team has been reported for this match.
- No significant impact from external factors such as weather or travel disruptions is noted. NCAA gambling investigations are ongoing broadly but no direct implication on this game.
- San Diego State seeks to maintain home dominance and defensive reputation, likely aiming for a strong statement win early in the season. Idaho State aims to continue its surprising early success and avoid a significant defeat to improve confidence and morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Idaho State Bengals: 2500, San Diego St Aztecs: -10000 | San Diego St Aztecs win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Idaho State Bengals: +22.5 -115, San Diego St Aztecs: -22.5 -105 | San Diego St Aztecs to cover the -22.5 spread | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 139.5 -110, Under: 139.5 -114 | Under 139.5 points total | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 139.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State Aztecs are strongly favored to win convincingly given their superior defense, home advantage, and historical dominance over non-conference opponents. Idaho State may keep the game competitive early but is unlikely to cover the large spread.
Predicted Score: San Diego St Aztecs 80 – Idaho State Bengals 56