Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-18
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox (83-69) host the Oakland Athletics (71-81) at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are fighting for a playoff position while the Athletics are in a rebuilding phase, looking to develop young talent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston has an 11-3 moneyline record when Brayan Bello starts and has won 5 of their last 10 games, showing solid home performance despite some recent inconsistency. Oakland has struggled this season with a 4.69 ERA pitcher starting, and a 7-7 ATS record when Ginn starts.
- Recent matchups have been competitive with the last game ending 5-4 to Boston. The Red Sox average 4.53 runs per game vs Athleticsβ 3.81, suggesting a slight offensive edge for Boston.
- No significant injury reports impacting starting pitchers or key offensive players for either team.
- Game played at Fenway Park favors Boston's hitters and pitching staff. Weather conditions not a concern and both teams playing in usual home/away environments.
- Boston is motivated to secure a playoff berth and will likely deploy their bullpen carefully. Oakland is motivated as a spoiler and to test young arms like J.T. Ginn.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -158; Oakland Athletics +134 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox -1.5 125; Oakland Athletics +1.5 -150 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 9.5 100; Under 9.5 -122 | Under 9.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Boston Red Sox at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win moneyline, cover -1.5 spread, and game to go under 9.5 runs
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 5 – Oakland Athletics 3