Match Analysis: Toronto Argonauts vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-19
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto
Game Overview
The Montreal Alouettes (5-7) visit the Toronto Argonauts (4-8) with Montreal a clear favorite given their better recent form and home/away records. Toronto's defense has struggled significantly this season, especially against big plays, putting them at a disadvantage against Montreal's offense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montreal has been more consistent with a 7-3 SU record in their last 10 home games, while Toronto has given up 38+ points in 2 of their last 3 games and ranks near the bottom defensively in giving up big plays.
- Recent matchups have favored Montreal, and they enter with a better win percentage and recent momentum compared to the struggling Argonauts.
- No major injury reports indicate significant absences impacting either team; both teams are expected to be near full strength.
- The game is at Toronto's BMO Field with typical early fall weather; no adverse conditions expected that would skew play significantly.
- Montreal remains in playoff contention with slightly better odds, increasing motivation, while Toronto is trailing and fighting for relevance, possibly lowering their edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montreal -300, Toronto +240 | Montreal Alouettes | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Montreal -6.5 -122, Toronto +6.5 +100 | Montreal Alouettes -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5 -110, Under 50.5 -110 | Over 50.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montreal Alouettes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montreal Alouettes to win straight up, cover the -6.5 spread, and the game to go over 50.5 points.
Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 31 – Toronto Argonauts 20