Match Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-19
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: MHP Arena, Stuttgart, Germany
Game Overview
This Bundesliga match features VfB Stuttgart hosting FC St. Pauli, with Stuttgart sitting 12th and St. Pauli 4th in the league. Stuttgart have a perfect home record this season, while St. Pauli boasts strong away form with high goal output.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stuttgart is 1-2 in last 5 matches but unbeaten at home early in the season; St. Pauli is 2-0-1 with 7 goals in 3 matches, showing strong offensive capability.
- Historically, Stuttgart has dominated this matchup, especially at home, giving them a psychological edge.
- St. Pauli is missing Abdoulie Ceesay (ankle) among forwards; no major injuries reported for Stuttgart.
- Home crowd advantage at Mercedes-Benz Arena (MHP Arena) favors Stuttgart, with match kickoff Friday evening under favorable conditions.
- Both teams motivated to improve league position; Stuttgart to capitalize on home form, St. Pauli aiming to consolidate top 4 standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | VfB Stuttgart -136, Draw +300, FC St. Pauli +340 | VfB Stuttgart | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | VfB Stuttgart -0.75 (-108), FC St. Pauli +75 (-112) | VfB Stuttgart -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.75 (-105), Under 2.75 (-115) | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | VfB Stuttgart -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VfB Stuttgart to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.75 spread, and the game to go over 2.75 goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1