Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 5:15 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Game Overview
This is a late-season crucial MLB matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams are fighting for playoff relevance, with the Reds sitting three games behind the final NL wild-card spot and the Cardinals having minimal postseason chances. Pitching matchups and recent form are critical factors.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Reds have lost four of their last five games and are under pressure to win to stay in wild-card contention; their offense has cooled recently. The Cardinals are slightly below .500 overall but have a better home record, though with negligible playoff likelihood.
- Brady Singer (Reds) has a strong recent record against the Cardinals with a 2.50 ERA in three starts this year. The Cardinals' pitcher has shown shakiness recently compared to Singer's consistent form.
- No critical injuries affecting starting pitchers reported. Some minor injuries on Cardinalsβ roster but none impacting the starting lineup or pitching staff significantly.
- The game is at Busch Stadium, where Cardinals tend to perform better. Weather and other external factors are stable and expected not to influence play materially.
- Cincinnatiβs must-win playoff push gives them higher motivation, whereas the Cardinals have little postseason motivation remaining.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds -113, St. Louis Cardinals +103 | Cincinnati Reds | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +145, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -165 | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline, covering the spread, with the game total finishing under 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Reds 5, Cardinals 3