Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 4:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates with the Cubs favored on the moneyline (-154) and spread (-1.5). The total runs line is set at 8 with the under slightly favored at -115.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games and have a strong season performance as favorites (63.7% win rate). The Pirates have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 and have a 39.1% win rate as underdogs at +130 or longer.
- Historically, Cubs have a consistent edge especially when favored at these odds, while Pirates have covered the spread moderately well with a 77-67 ATS record this season.
- No significant injuries reported impacting starting lineups or rotation strength for either team.
- Game played at PNC Park, a neutral pitching-friendly park, with no adverse weather or travel concerns reported.
- Cubs appear motivated to extend their winning streak and improve playoff positioning, while Piratesβ recent form and motivation are low given their struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -154, Pittsburgh Pirates: 130 | Chicago Cubs | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5: 106, Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -128 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8: -105, Under 8: -115 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win moneyline, cover -1.5 spread, and the game to go under 8 total runs.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 - Pittsburgh Pirates 3
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