Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Mirassol - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Botafogo Home Stadium
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Mirassol in a closely contested Brazil Campeonato match. Both teams show strong attacking potential with relatively good recent form; Botafogo’s slight home edge and defensive solidity contrast with Mirassol's strong comeback ability and wing attacks.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo holds a decent record with 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently. Mirassol is slightly better in points with 7 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses and averages about 1.69 goals scored, 1 goal conceded, highlighting a more offensive style but more fragile defense.
- Mixed recent H2H with Botafogo winning 2 of the last 5 matches and Mirassol 2 wins as well. Botafogo holds a slight ATS edge (60%) and all recent games have hit the over line, showing likelihood for goals.
- No major injuries reported for either side, indicating both teams at full competitive strength.
- Game is at Botafogo’s home ground providing a slight crowd support and atmosphere advantage. Weather conditions appear stable with no disruptions expected.
- Both teams are motivated; Mirassol pushing to maintain top 5 positioning while Botafogo aims to capitalize on home matches to close gap in league table.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo: -150, Mirassol: 425, Draw: 265 | Botafogo | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Botafogo -0.75: -112, Mirassol +75: -108 | Botafogo -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.75 spread, and match to go over 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1
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