Match Analysis: Stony Brook Seawolves vs Maine Black Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stony Brook Arena, Stony Brook, NY
Game Overview
Stony Brook Seawolves host Maine Black Bears in an NCAA basketball matchup. Stony Brook enters with a season-opening win, while Maine suffered a sizable road loss in their first game. The home side has dominated the recent head-to-head, riding a 23-game win streak against Maine, including a tight 74-72 victory in their last meeting. Both teams are early in their seasons, but historical trends and recent performance heavily favor Stony Brook.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stony Brook (1-0) secured a 66-59 victory over Farmingdale State, demonstrating defensive solidity and control at home. Maine (0-1) was soundly defeated 67-47 at George Washington, struggling offensively with only two players in double figures. Stony Brook has won its last six home games in-conference, while Maine has lost four straight on the road in the America East[4]. Stony Brookβs home record vs. Maine is an imposing 16-6, while Maineβs road record in this matchup is just 2-14[1][2].
- Stony Brook has won 23 consecutive games against Maine, dating back to 2011[1][2]. The last 10 meetings have all gone Stony Brookβs way, with an average margin of victory in the last five games of 6.2 points for Stony Brook[1][2][6]. Maine last won at Stony Brook in 2008. Recent contests have been competitive, but Stony Brook consistently finds ways to win.
- No injury updates are available in the provided data.
- The game is at Stony Brook Arena, where the Seawolves have a clear home-court advantage in this series[1][4]. No significant external factors (weather, travel, etc.) are indicated.
- Maine is coming off a strong 2023-24 campaign (20-14), but opened poorly. They will be eager to rebound, but face historical and psychological hurdles against a team that has owned them for over a decade. Stony Brook, meanwhile, will look to maintain dominance and start the season 2-0.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stony Brook -218 / Maine +180 | Stony Brook win | β β β β β 80% |
| Spread | Stony Brook -5.5 -108 / Maine +5.5 -112 | Stony Brook covers -5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 136.5 -112 / Under 136.5 -108 | Under 136.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stony Brook Seawolves 90% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 136.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Stony Brook Seawolves at 90% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 50.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Stony Brook is heavily favored to win, given its historical dominance, strong home performance, and Maineβs recent struggles. Expect a close, low-scoring contest, but the Seawolves should cover a modest spread. The total is likely to stay under the posted line, given both teamsβ recent offensive struggles and the underβs recent hit rate[3][4].
Predicted Score: Stony Brook 67, Maine 60