Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees in a pivotal late-season AL East matchup. Boston is favored on the moneyline with Garrett Crochet starting, who has a strong 2.57 ERA this season, while the Yankees counter with Will Warren, who has struggled recently. The game has playoff implications, intensifying motivation for both teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston holds an 81-68 record with strong home performance (44-30), while New York is 83-65 with a decent 39-34 road record. The Red Sox have lost three in a row, but Crochet's steady pitching contrasts with Warren's inconsistent recent form.
- Recent meetings favor Boston; Crochet shut down the Yankees effectively last time out. The Yankees have won the first two games of this series making them motivated to complete the sweep.
- No major injury concerns reported for either side affecting starting lineups or pitching staff for this game.
- Playing at Fenway gives Boston home-field advantage. Weather conditions expected to be typical for September with no significant impact forecasted.
- Both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning; New York aims to extend its series advantage, while Boston fights to halt its losing streak and maintain wild card contention.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston -150, New York +136 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Boston -1.5 +138, New York +1.5 -158 | New York Yankees +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8 -110, Under 8 -110 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win moneyline, Yankees +1.5 spread, under 8 runs total
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 4 - New York Yankees 3
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