Match Analysis: Metz vs Nice – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 4:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien
Game Overview
Metz hosts Nice in a Ligue 1 Round 12 clash at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz, currently 17th in the table, seeks back-to-back home wins for the first time this season after victories over Nantes and another recent win. Nice, sitting 8th, comes off a narrow 1-0 loss to Paris Saint-Germain. Both teams have shown mixed form, with Metz struggling defensively and Nice inconsistent on the road. The match is expected to be competitive, with a draw being a likely outcome based on recent trends and head-to-head history.
Key Factors to Consider
- Metz has won two straight matches, including a 2-0 win at Nantes, but their overall form remains shaky, with only 1 win in 5 away matches and a poor defensive record. Nice has 4 wins in 6 matches but has lost 3 of their last 5 away games and conceded in every away fixture. Niceβs home record is strong (6W, 1D, 1L), but their away form is a concern. Metzβs recent home form shows a slight uptick, but they have not been convincing until late stages of matches.
- Nice holds a clear advantage in the head-to-head record, with 8 wins to Metzβs 3 and 4 draws in their last 15 meetings. Nice has won 4 of the last 5 encounters, including a 2-1 win in their most recent meeting. Metz has not beaten Nice in their last 5 home meetings.
- No major injuries or suspensions reported for either team. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- The match will be officiated by StΓ©phanie Frappart. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play. The venue, Stade Saint-Symphorien, is a neutral ground for both teams, but Metz has a slight home advantage.
- Metz is fighting to avoid relegation and is looking to build momentum with consecutive wins. Nice is aiming to maintain its top-half position and close the gap on the top six. Both teams have strong motivation, but Niceβs superior squad depth and recent form give them a slight edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Metz: 225, Nice: 109, Draw: 260 | Draw | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Metz: 25 100, Nice: -0.25 -120 | Nice -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.75 -110, Under: 2.75 -110 | Under 2.75 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nice 62% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nice at 62% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having strong motivation and recent form. Niceβs superior head-to-head record and better away form suggest they are slight favorites, but Metzβs recent home wins and improved confidence make a draw a strong possibility. The most likely outcome is a draw, with both teams scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-1