Match Analysis: Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Olympic Stadium, Berlin
Game Overview
The Indianapolis Colts (7-2) face the Atlanta Falcons (3-5) in an NFL regular-season game hosted in Berlin as part of the NFL's international series. Colts have been strong this season, leading the AFC South with a 7-2 record, while Falcons struggle at 3-5, ranking third in the NFC South. The game will showcase the Colts' defensive back Sauce Gardner making his international debut, adding intrigue to the matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indianapolis Colts have demonstrated solid performance this season, ranking high offensively and defensively with a point differential of +109 (290 PF, 181 PA). In contrast, Atlanta Falcons have been inconsistent, holding a 3-5 record with 143 points scored and 178 allowed, indicating defensive vulnerabilities and offensive challenges.
- Recent head-to-head stats are limited, but the Colts hold a better season record and more consistent form. The Colts have won a majority of their recent home games, whereas Falcons have struggled on the road and overall in the 2025 season.
- Current specific injury details for both teams before this game are unavailable, but no major absences have been reported for Coltsโ key players. Falcons have some uncertainties but no confirmed impactful injuries noted in recent reports.
- The game is held in Berlinโs Olympic Stadium, an NFL International Series venue, which may neutralize home-field advantage for Colts. Travel and unfamiliar conditions may affect Falcons more negatively due to their weaker recent form, but Colts need to adjust to the international setting as well.
- Colts look motivated to maintain AFC South leadership and build momentum before a Week 11 bye. Falcons, struggling in the NFC South, see this as a crucial opportunity for an upset to improve their playoff chances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons: +245, Indianapolis Colts: -305 | Indianapolis Colts | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons: +6.5 -112, Indianapolis Colts: -6.5 -108 | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -108, Under: 48.5 -112 | Under 48.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 10% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indianapolis Colts are favored to win with a notable margin, primarily due to stronger season performance, better point differential, and home (neutral) advantage despite the game being international. The Falconsโ underdog status and recent struggles suggest they will find it difficult to keep pace with the Coltsโ balanced offense and defense.
Predicted Score: Indianapolis Colts 27 – 17 Atlanta Falcons