Match Analysis: Colorado State Rams vs UNLV Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins
Game Overview
The UNLV Rebels (6-2, 2-2 Mountain West) face the Colorado State Rams (2-6, 1-3 Mountain West) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. UNLV enters as the clear favorite, both in the standings and in betting markets, with strong offensive production but a porous defense. Colorado State has struggled this season, especially defensively, and is coming off a series of losses. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with the over/under set at 61.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV ranks 26th nationally in points scored (36.9 per game) but 126th in points allowed (34.3 per game), indicating a high-octane offense but a weak defense. Colorado State is 127th in rush yards allowed and 131st in pass yards allowed, suggesting they will struggle to contain UNLV's offense. Colorado Stateโs recent form is poor, with a 1-4 record in their last five games and 2-3 against the spread. UNLV has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games.
- Recent head-to-head matchups show UNLV has dominated Colorado State, winning the last three meetings by an average margin of 14 points. UNLVโs offense has consistently outperformed Colorado Stateโs defense in these matchups.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their starting lineups.
- The game will be played at high altitude in Fort Collins, which can impact player stamina and passing efficiency. Weather is expected to be clear, with no significant impact on play. The game will be televised on FS1, with national exposure potentially adding pressure for both teams.
- UNLV is fighting for a Mountain West title and a potential bowl berth, while Colorado State is out of contention and likely playing for pride. UNLVโs motivation is higher, with more to gain from a win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams: 164, UNLV Rebels: -198 | UNLV Rebels | โ โ โ โ โ 82% |
| Spread | Colorado State Rams: 4.5 -112, UNLV Rebels: -4.5 -108 | UNLV Rebels -4.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Over/under | over: 61.5 -115, under: 61.5 -105 | Over 61.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 61.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNLV is expected to win this game, likely by a margin of 7-10 points. The game is projected to be high-scoring, with both teamsโ defenses struggling to contain the opposing offense. The over is favored due to both teamsโ offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses.
Predicted Score: UNLV 38, Colorado State 30