Match Analysis: Utah State Aggies vs Nevada Wolf Pack – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah
Game Overview
Utah State Aggies (4-4, 2-2 Mountain West) host the struggling Nevada Wolf Pack (1-7, 0-4 Mountain West) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Utah State is heavily favored, with the spread around 9.5 points and the total set at 52.5. The Aggies have shown strong home dominance, while Nevada has struggled offensively and defensively, especially on the road and against conference opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah State has a balanced offense, averaging 252.9 passing yards and 160.3 rushing yards per game, but their defense ranks near the bottom nationally, allowing 31.8 points per game. Nevadaโs offense is among the worst in the FBS, ranking 134th in Q1 and Q3 scoring, and they have lost 15 straight conference games. The Aggies have covered the spread in six straight home games, while Nevada has failed to cover in five of their last six November games against non-AP teams.
- Utah State has won the last 12 home games, and the home team has dominated recent meetings. Nevada has lost 15 consecutive conference matchups, including recent games against Utah State.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is played at high altitude in Logan, Utah, which can impact visiting teams, especially those not acclimated. Weather is expected to be clear, with no major adverse conditions forecasted.
- Utah State is fighting to improve their bowl eligibility and conference standing, while Nevada is playing for pride after a difficult season. The Aggies are highly motivated to maintain their home dominance and secure a winning record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: 295, Utah State Aggies: -370 | Utah State Aggies | โ โ โ โ โ 92% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack: 9.5 -105, Utah State Aggies: -9.5 -115 | Utah State Aggies -9.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 52.5 -115, Under: 52.5 -105 | Under 52.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 52.5 13% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah State is expected to win comfortably, covering the spread and likely keeping the game under the total. Nevadaโs offensive struggles and Utah Stateโs home dominance make the Aggies a strong pick. The Aggiesโ defense, while porous, should be able to contain Nevadaโs anemic attack, and Utah Stateโs offense should be able to move the ball effectively at home.
Predicted Score: Utah State Aggies 31, Nevada Wolf Pack 17