Match Analysis: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
Game Overview
The No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2) host the Navy Midshipmen (7-1) in a high-profile NCAAF matchup on November 8, 2025. Notre Dame enters the game as a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -26.5 and the over/under at 56.5 points. The Irish boast the 12th-ranked rushing defense, while Navy features the nation's top rushing offense. The game will be televised on NBC and streamed on Fubo and Peacock.
Key Factors to Consider
- Notre Dame averages 37.4 points per game and allows 19.9, ranking 21st and 28th respectively. Their defense is strong against the run (12th nationally), but their pass defense is weak (120th). Navy is dominant on the ground, with the No. 1 rushing offense, but their defense is less tested. Notre Dame's offense has struggled with killer instinct in recent games, while Navy's offense has consistently gone over in six of their last eight games.
- Notre Dame has historically dominated Navy, but recent matchups have seen Navy cover the spread more often than not. The Irish are favored by 26.5 points, reflecting their superior record and defensive strength.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to be at full strength.
- The game is being played at Notre Dame Stadium, providing a home-field advantage for the Irish. Weather conditions are expected to be favorable, with no major impacts anticipated.
- Notre Dame is motivated to maintain their top-10 ranking and secure a strong finish to the regular season. Navy, despite being underdogs, is playing for pride and to prove their offense can compete with elite defenses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen: 1300, Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -2800 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | โ โ โ โ โ 95% |
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen: 26.5 -110, Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -26.5 -110 | Navy Midshipmen +26.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 56.5 -105, Under: 56.5 -115 | Over 56.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 56.5 37% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Notre Dame is expected to win, but Navy's strong rushing offense may keep the game closer than the spread suggests. The total is likely to go over, given both teams' offensive capabilities and recent trends.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 38 – Navy 21