Match Analysis: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette, Louisiana
Game Overview
The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (3-6) will host the Texas State Bobcats (3-5) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. The game is expected to be competitive, with Texas State favored by 2.5 points and the total set near 63.5 points. Both teams have struggled defensively throughout the season, contributing to the high total and close betting lines.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State averages 34.1 points scored per game with a balanced offense (253.8 pass yards and 217.1 rush yards per game) but concedes 33.9 points on defense, among the worst in the FBS. Louisiana has a lower scoring average (around 24.3 points per game) and also weak defense, allowing a high number of points, especially in Q2 and Q3 quarters. Texas State has lost its last three games as favorites and has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games, while Louisiana has covered the spread in four straight contests against Texas State.
- Historically, the favorite has dominated this rivalry, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings and covering the spread 8 of 10 times, mostly favoring Texas State. Louisiana has covered the spread in their last four games against Texas State but has struggled as an underdog.
- No specific injury information was reported for this game as of now.
- The game takes place at Louisiana's home venue, potentially benefiting the Ragin Cajuns. Both teams have shown tendencies for high-scoring games in November, increasing likelihood of a game surpassing the total points line.
- Both teams have middling records and are fighting for better positioning in the Sun Belt standings, with motivation potentially high for a late-season win as Texas State tries to extend their recent success against Louisiana.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: +120, Texas State Bobcats: -142 | Texas State Bobcats | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: +2.5, -105, Texas State Bobcats: -2.5, -115 | Texas State Bobcats -2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 63.5, -108, Under: 63.5, -112 | Over 63.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 63.5 19% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State is predicted to win narrowly as the favored team, with a probable final margin near the 2.5-point spread. The game is expected to be high-scoring given the offensive capabilities and defensive weaknesses of both teams.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 35 – 31 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns