Match Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Game Overview
The matchup between TCU Horned Frogs (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) and Iowa State Cyclones (5-4, 2-4 Big 12) is a Big 12 showdown with TCU holding a better overall record and a stronger conference standing. The game takes place at TCU's home stadium, where the Horned Frogs are significant favorites both on the moneyline and against the spread[1][3].
Key Factors to Consider
- TCU ranks 38th in scoring offense (34.6 PPG) and 74th in scoring defense (25.1 PPG). Their passing offense is elite (11th nationally), but their run game is weak (108th). The defense allows a lot of passing yards (118th) but is solid against the run (34th). Iowa State, while unranked, have a balanced record with a below-average Big 12 performance, indicating inconsistency[1][3].
- No direct recent head-to-head data provided, but TCUโs general trend as a favorite is strong: 11-1 SU in last 12 as a favorite and 12-2 SU in last 14 home games[5].
- No live injury updates available in the data.
- Game will be broadcast nationally on FOX with live streaming available, suggesting good weather and field conditions (not specified in data).
- TCU is fighting for a top-tier bowl and possible conference championship positioning, while Iowa State is likely playing for bowl eligibility and pride[3].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | TCU -258, Iowa State +210 | TCU to win | High |
| Spread | TCU -7 (-108), Iowa State +7 (-112) | TCU to cover -7 | Moderate-High (TCU at home, better team, but ISU could keep it within one score) |
| Over/under | Over/Under 57.5 (-110/-110) | Under 57.5 | Low-Moderate (TCUโs poor pass defense could fuel scoring, but recent trends suggest volatility) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs 117% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 57.5 -1% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: TCU Horned Frogs at 117% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 55.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
TCU is favored heavily at home, with strong metrics in passing and a solid track record as a favorite. Iowa Stateโs inconsistent form suggests a TCU win and cover is likely, though their porous pass defense could keep Iowa State in the game. Expect an average-scoring Big 12 game.
Predicted Score: TCU 31, Iowa State 24