Match Analysis: UTEP Miners vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Game Overview
Conference USA rivals UTEP Miners and Jacksonville State Gamecocks meet in a pivotal late-season matchup. Jacksonville State enters with a 5-3 overall record and a perfect 4-0 in conference play, while UTEP sits at 2-6 overall and 1-3 in CUSA. The Gamecocks are favored by a narrow margin, indicating a close contest is expected. The over/under is set at 49.5 points, suggesting a moderate scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jacksonville State boasts a strong rushing attack, ranking 5th nationally with 259.4 rushing yards per game, but their passing game is weak (129th, 149.9 yards per game). Defensively, they allow 25.9 points per game (82nd) and are vulnerable against the pass (99th). UTEP has struggled offensively, averaging just 20.0 points per game, and defensively, they allow 29.5 points per game. Their most recent loss was 33-20 to Kennesaw State, while Jacksonville State narrowly won 24-21 over Middle Tennessee. Jacksonville Stateโs balanced offense and superior rushing attack give them a clear edge, but UTEPโs home-field advantage at the Sun Bowl could play a role.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but both teams are in the same conference, suggesting familiarity with each otherโs style of play.
- Jacksonville State has several key players listed with undisclosed injuries, including WRs Aghogho Eyafe, Colton Pitchford, Nabi Hoyt, Aramoni Rhone, and Jaden Smith, as well as RB Kam Thomas (knee), TE Judah Ezinwa, and TE Cash Cheeks (ankle). UTEPโs injury report is not detailed in available sources, but the absence of key receivers and a running back for Jacksonville State could impact their offensive production.
- The game will be played at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, which is UTEPโs home stadium. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, providing national exposure.
- Jacksonville State is fighting for a strong conference finish and potential bowl eligibility, while UTEP is looking to salvage pride after a disappointing season. Jacksonville Stateโs motivation to maintain their conference lead is likely higher, but UTEP will be eager to end their losing streak at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks: -115, UTEP Miners: -105 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks: -1.5 -102, UTEP Miners: 1.5 -118 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -1.5 | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
| Over/under | over: 49.5 -105, under: 49.5 -115 | Over 49.5 | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 49.5 2% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State is favored due to their superior rushing attack and better overall record, but UTEPโs home-field advantage and Jacksonville Stateโs injury concerns make this a close contest. The Gamecocks are likely to win, but by a narrow margin. The total points line suggests a moderate scoring game, with both teams capable of putting up points but also showing defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 27, UTEP 24