Match Analysis: Tondela vs Vitória SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Game Overview
This Primeira Liga match features Tondela hosting Vitória SC. Tondela currently displays weaker form with no wins in their last three matches, while Vitória SC has mixed form with only one away win in recent games. Historically, Vitória SC holds a better head-to-head record but both teams have shown competitive encounters. The match is expected to be tightly contested with modest goal scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tondela has lost all their last three league matches, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 1.9 per game at home. Vitória SC shows mixed form with only one away win recently and averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Both teams have struggled offensively but Vitória SC tends to have a slightly stronger defense.
- In 18 past meetings, Vitória SC leads with 9 wins to Tondela's 6, with 3 draws. Vitória SC averages 1.44 goals per game compared to Tondela's 0.94. Tondela has managed some wins historically at home but Vitória SC generally outperforms in overall H2H stats.
- No explicit injury information is available from the current data, indicating no major absences reported for either team ahead of the fixture.
- The match will be played at Tondela’s home ground. Weather or other conditions are not specified. Motivation might be influenced by league standings as Vitória SC is mid-table, whereas Tondela struggles near the bottom.
- Vitória SC, sitting in 11th place, will aim to improve away results to climb the table; Tondela, with a longer winless run, will be motivated to secure points at home to avoid slipping further.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tondela: 1.88, Vitória SC: 1.51, Draw: 2.15 | Vitória SC win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Tondela: 1.08, Vitória SC: 1.28 | Vitória SC 0 spread (pick'em line) favor | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 goals: 1.02, Under 2.25 goals: 1.18 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vitória SC 26% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering form, head-to-head, and current odds, Vitória SC is favored for a narrow away win or draw, while Tondela’s home advantage and historical competitiveness play a role. A low-scoring game with Vitória SC edging out or a draw is most probable.
Predicted Score: 0-1