Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ohio State home stadium (exact stadium unspecified)
Game Overview
The matchup features Ohio State Buckeyes hosting Purdue Boilermakers. Ohio State is heavily favored due to superior offensive and defensive statistics, recent head-to-head dominance, and significantly better form this season. Purdue has struggled defensively and on turnovers, making it difficult to contend with Ohio State's balanced and high-scoring attack.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State ranks 26th offensively averaging 36.6 points per game and has the top-ranked defense allowing just 6.9 points per game. Purdue ranks 101st offensively with 22.1 points per game and 98th defensively allowing 27 points per game. Ohio State also excels at turnover margin, committing only 5 turnovers (3rd best) while Purdue has 17 turnovers (129th worst).
- Ohio State leads the series with 42 wins to Purdue's 15, including a recent 3-game win streak. Ohio State averages 30.3 points per game against Purdue compared to Purdue's 15.9. Against the spread, Ohio State has an 80% win rate in recent matchups; Purdue only 20%.
- No specific injury updates available for either team at the time of analysis, but no major absences reported that would drastically affect Ohio Stateโs dominance.
- The game is at Ohio Stateโs home field, which historically shows an undefeated home record versus Purdue (9-0). The game time and conditions are typical with no adverse weather or travel issues impacting teams significantly.
- Ohio State remains in contention for top CFP rankings and aims to maintain dominance. Purdue looks to upset a top-tier opponent but motivation is tempered by recent poor defensive and turnover performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes: -10000, Purdue Boilermakers: 3000 | Ohio State Buckeyes | โ โ โ โ โ 95% |
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes: -29.5 -115, Purdue Boilermakers: +29.5 -105 | Ohio State Buckeyes to cover -29.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | over: 48.5 -105, under: 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 31% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State to win decisively, covering the large spread given their superior overall team performance, turnover advantage, and dominant defensive statistics.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 38 – Purdue 10