Match Analysis: Alverca vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo, Portugal
Game Overview
The match between Alverca and Rio Ave FC is a Portuguese Primeira Liga clash scheduled for November 8, 2025, at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Both teams have displayed mixed form in recent fixtures, with Rio Ave showing somewhat more stability defensively but Alverca holding a slight advantage in their historical direct encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alverca has recorded mixed results recently, scoring an average of 0.5 goals per home match while conceding 2.5, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Rio Ave has better defensive figures conceding 1.8 goals per match but scoring fewer goals overall, with recent results including draws and some losses. Rio Ave won 4 of their last 5 matches, whereas Alverca won 2 and drew 2, showing both teams have room for improvement offensively and defensively.
- Historically, the teams have played 3 matches since 2003; Alverca won 2, Rio Ave won 1, with no draws. Alverca has the slight psychological edge, but recent forms suggest Rio Ave may be better positioned. Their head-to-head matches have featured low scoring, with Alverca averaging 1 goal per game and conceding slightly more.
- No specific injury data is available for key players from either team in the sources. Hence, the teams are assumed to be near full strength or no impactful player absences have been reported.
- The match is played at Alverca's home ground, which could provide some home advantage. The kickoff time and weather or pitch conditions have not been indicated but presumed standard for November in Portugal.
- Both teams are mid-table contenders aiming to improve their standing. Rio Ave appears slightly more motivated given recent better form and consistency in results compared to Alverca. Alverca might look to leverage home advantage to secure important points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alverca: 149, Rio_Ave_FC: 183, Draw: 220 | Alverca win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Alverca: -125 (0 spread), Rio_Ave_FC: 105 (0 spread) | Alverca to cover the spread (0) | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over: -110 (2.25 goals), Under: -110 (2.25 goals) | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alverca 32% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alverca at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is predicted to end in a narrow victory for Alverca due to their home advantage and slight historical advantage, but Rio Ave’s form suggests a close contest possibly decided by a single goal.
Predicted Score: 1-0