Match Analysis: Iowa State Cyclones vs Grambling St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Game Overview
The Iowa State Cyclones host the Grambling State Tigers in a non-conference NCAA basketball game. Both teams start the season 1-0 following dominant opening wins. Iowa State won 88-50 at home against Fairleigh Dickinson, showcasing efficient shooting and strong rebounding. Grambling State opened with a 91-47 blowout against Huston-Tillotson, with key contributions inside the paint. Iowa State is heavily favored, reflected in a large -32.5 spread, while the over/under is set near 140.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State exhibits superior shooting efficiency (over 52% FG, 44% 3PT in opener) and strong rebounding (41 rebounds) led by Milan Momcilovic who scored 29 points. Grambling State showed scoring balance and dominance inside with a decisive 91-47 win but has a weaker recent history with a decline in last season's performance (12-22 overall).
- Iowa State dominates head-to-head history including a recent 92-37 win over Grambling. Both teams enter at 1-0 this season, but Iowa State has the historical edge and experience advantage playing at home.
- No significant injury reports or absences have been noted for either team ahead of this game.
- The game is played at Iowa Stateβs Hilton Coliseum, giving them home court advantage. The public betting is balanced at 50% split, indicating no heavy public bias despite the spread.
- Both teams want to maintain undefeated starts; Iowa State aims to confirm its superiority after last season's strong showing, while Grambling looks to rebound from a disappointing prior year and gain confidence against a higher-tier opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State: -1500, Grambling State: +1200 | Iowa State Cyclones win | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | Grambling State: -104, Iowa State: -118 | Iowa State Cyclones cover -32.5 | β β β β β 95% |
| Over/under | Over: -110, Under: -110 | Over 140.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 140.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 140.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State Cyclones win decisively, covering the large spread due to superior season start, home advantage, and historical dominance. Expect a high scoring game, likely exceeding the total of 140.5 points.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 92 – Grambling State 58