Match Analysis: South Alabama Jaguars vs Alcorn St Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: South Alabama Home Court
Game Overview
The South Alabama Jaguars are strong favorites hosting the Alcorn St Braves in this NCAA basketball matchup. South Alabama's dominant home performance and strong recent coverage of large spreads highlight their advantage. Alcorn St is a significant underdog, reflected by heavily shifted moneyline odds and a large point spread favoring the Jaguars.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama has been consistent in covering spreads and controlling game tempo at home, with an 18-13 record against the spread and strong under total tendencies in recent games. Alcorn St struggles offensively against strong defensive teams and faces difficulty overcoming large spreads. South Alabama's offense and defense rankings in their conference further underscore their edge.
- Recent meetings show South Alabama dominating Alcorn St, often winning by large margins. There is a clear trend of South Alabama outperforming Alcorn St both offensively and defensively in head-to-head matchups.
- No significant injury reports found for either team at this time, suggesting both squads will likely be at full strength.
- Playing at home provides South Alabama with crowd advantage and familiarity, enhancing their probability to cover the spread and manage the game's pace effectively. No adverse weather or travel issues are impacting either team.
- South Alabama, as a favored home team and conference competitor, is motivated to maintain strong early season form, while Alcorn St aims to pull off an upset but faces an uphill battle given current form and odds.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alcorn St Braves: 800, South Alabama Jaguars: -1667 | South Alabama Jaguars win | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Alcorn St Braves: -16.5 -113, South Alabama Jaguars: 16.5 -113 | South Alabama Jaguars to cover -16.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 141.5 -114, Under: 141.5 -112 | Under 141.5 points | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 141.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 141.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama Jaguars will win convincingly, covering the large spread and the game to finish under the total points line given both teams' recent scoring patterns and South Alabama's defensive prowess.
Predicted Score: South Alabama Jaguars 78 – Alcorn St Braves 59