Match Analysis: Bahia vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-15
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova
Game Overview
Bahia hosts Cruzeiro in a key Brazilian Serie A matchup. Cruzeiro hold a better overall H2H record but Bahia is strong at home. Both teams have similar recent form with Cruzeiro slightly stronger overall and more consistent defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro has a superior overall record (13-5-4) compared to Bahia (10-6-4), with a better points total (44 vs 36). Bahia is strong at home (7-3-0), while Cruzeiro also performs well away (4-4-2). Both teams have comparable recent results with Cruzeiro slightly sharper defensively.
- Across 23 meetings, Cruzeiro leads with 12 wins compared to Bahia's 4; 7 matches ended in draws. Cruzeiro holds a historical edge both overall and in 2nd half performance.
- No significant injury information available, suggesting both squads close to full strength.
- Match played at Bahia’s home ground may provide an advantage for the home side. No adverse weather or travel factors noted.
- Cruzeiro sits higher in the table and may be more motivated to maintain or extend their lead, but Bahia’s home form and need for points keeps motivation high on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia: 145, Cruzeiro: 205, Draw: 200 | Bahia | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Bahia -0.25: 110, Cruzeiro +25: -130 | Bahia -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 105, Under 2.25: -125 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bahia at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia to win on moneyline; Bahia -0.25 on spread; Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0