Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Memphis Tigers (8-1) host the Tulane Green Wave (6-2) in a key AAC matchup. Memphis is highly favored with an 8-1 record and strong offensive and defensive statistics, while Tulane, with a 6-2 record, aims to pull off an upset on the road. The game promises a moderately high scoring contest with an over/under set at 55.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis boasts a robust offense, ranking 7th in points scored per game (37.7) and 22nd in rushing yards per game (200.6). Defensively, Memphis allows only 19.2 points per game, ranking 24th nationally. Tulane has a competitive record but their defensive stats show vulnerabilities, particularly in tackling, which Memphis is expected to exploit with a heavy rush attack.
- Both teams are AAC rivals with recent meetings favoring Memphis. Memphis is 4-1 in their last five matchups and has predominantly covered the spread at 4-1. Memphis also performs well on the road against the spread. Tulane has struggled to capitalize on Memphis's tackling deficiencies in past games.
- No specific injury reports were available for this matchup, but Memphis is predicted to have or succeed regardless of whether their starting quarterback plays, due to strong rushing advantages.
- The weather forecast shows clear conditions with 64ยฐF temperature and no precipitation expected. The game is played at Memphis's home stadium, giving the Tigers a home-field advantage. Public betting heavily favors Memphis with 76% of the bets and money directed at them.
- Memphis, ranked No. 22/25 nationally, is motivated to maintain their strong position in the AAC with an 8-1 record. Tulane looks to disrupt Memphisโs dominance and improve their conference standing with a win. Memphisโs recent form indicates strong confidence and consistency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers: -198, Tulane Green Wave: 164 | Memphis Tigers win | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers: -4.5 -115, Tulane Green Wave: +4.5 -105 | Memphis Tigers -4.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 55.5 -105, Under: 55.5 -115 | Under 55.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 55.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis Tigers are predicted to win by a margin covering the spread of about 5 to 6 points, with the game likely to go under the total points line of 55.5.
Predicted Score: Memphis Tigers 30 – Tulane Green Wave 24