Match Analysis: Red Star Belgrade vs Lille – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Belgrade
Game Overview
Red Star Belgrade, Serbian SuperLiga champions and domestic double winners, face Lille, a consistent Ligue 1 club with recent Champions League experience, in the UEFA Europa League League Phase. Both teams look to secure their first win in this phase, with Red Star looking to leverage home advantage while Lille aims to bounce back after a recent loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- Red Star Belgrade showed strong domestic form, clinching the Serbian SuperLiga early and performing well in the Serbian Cup, though they have struggled in Europa League group matches, currently with no wins and a negative goal difference. Lille, fifth in Ligue 1 last season, progressed to the Champions League Round of 16, led offensively by Jonathan David. Their Europa League form reflects challenges but with higher European pedigree and attack potency overall.
- This match marks the first-ever meeting between Red Star Belgrade and Lille, leaving no direct historical data for head-to-head performance.
- No explicit recent injury details available for either team affecting this match.
- The home atmosphere at Stadion Rajko Mitić is expected to boost Red Star, while Lille may have motivation to recover after a recent home defeat. Weather and travel conditions appear normal with match in Serbia and no noted disruptions.
- Both teams seek their first Europa League win this season; Red Star wants to capitalize on home advantage and improve its position, Lille desires to maintain European competitiveness and respond positively after setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lille: 1.29, Red Star Belgrade: 1.95, Draw: 2.45 | Lille win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Lille -0.25: -105, Red Star Belgrade +25: -125 | Lille -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -115, Under 2.75: -115 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lille 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Lille at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lille are favored to win a close, low-scoring game by a narrow margin, taking advantage of superior European experience and offensive threat despite Red Star's home support.
Predicted Score: Lille 1 – 0 Red Star Belgrade