Match Analysis: UC Davis Aggies vs North Dakota St Bison – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: UC Davis Health Stadium, Davis, CA
Game Overview
The UC Davis Aggies host the North Dakota State Bison in an early-season NCAAB matchup. Both teams are coming off their season openers, with UC Davis securing a dominant home win and North Dakota State narrowly losing on the road. The Aggies are favored by about 3.5 points, with the total set at 143.5. The game features contrasting recent performances and a recent head-to-head result favoring UC Davis.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC Davis opened their season with a convincing 96-69 victory over Menlo Oaks, showing strong offensive output and defensive control. North Dakota State lost a tight game on the road, 67-65 to Oregon State, indicating they can compete with higher-level competition but struggled to close out. UC Davis appears to have more momentum and a stronger start to the season.
- The last meeting between these teams was won by UC Davis, 68-53, giving them a psychological edge. Historically, UC Davis has shown the ability to control the pace and outscore North Dakota State in their matchups.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their full starting lineups.
- UC Davis has the advantage of playing at home, where they opened with a strong win. North Dakota State is on the road, which may impact their ability to adjust to the pace and environment. The game is scheduled for late evening local time, which could slightly favor the home teamβs rhythm.
- UC Davis will look to build on their strong start and continue their momentum. North Dakota State will be motivated to bounce back from their opening loss and prove they can compete away from home. Both teams are likely to be highly motivated, but UC Davis has the added incentive of defending their home court.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies: -172, North Dakota St Bison: 142 | UC Davis Aggies | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | UC Davis Aggies: -3.5 -104, North Dakota St Bison: +3.5 -118 | UC Davis Aggies -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 143.5 -110, Under: 143.5 -110 | Over 143.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 143.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 143.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Davis is favored to win this matchup, given their strong start to the season, home advantage, and recent head-to-head success. The spread of 3.5 points is tight, but UC Davisβs offensive firepower and home-court edge make them the likely winner. The total is set at 143.5, which seems reasonable given both teamsβ scoring tendencies in their openers. A close game is expected, but UC Davis should cover the spread and win outright.
Predicted Score: UC Davis Aggies 74 – 69 North Dakota St Bison