Match Analysis: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Rocket Arena
Game Overview
A high-stakes NBA mid-week clash between the Cleveland Cavaliers (7th EC, 4-3) and the Philadelphia 76ers (2nd EC, 5-2), both coming off solid starts to the season and strong recent home/away performances. Cleveland has won its last game, while Philadelphia is coming off a loss, potentially tipping motivation scales. The Cavaliers are lauded for defensive intensity, even from bench players, while the 76ers offer a more mobile, attacking styleβespecially with Joel Embiid likely out, which could impact their interior defense but increase pace[1].
Key Factors to Consider
- Cleveland averages 114.2 points at home and Philly 124 points on the road this season. Both teams have similar points allowed (around 115.6). Cleveland's last 10 home games vs. Philly have seen them score under 121.5 in 13 of 14[1].
- Recent H2H average totals are 209.94 points, significantly lower than current season averages for both teams (229.55 for Cavs, 231.73 for Sixers)[1].
- Philadelphia may be without Joel Embiid, a critical absence for interior defense and scoring, potentially making them more perimeter-oriented and faster[1].
- None reported beyond possible injury adjustments to rotations.
- Cleveland is coming off a win and has a strong home record (2-0 at home). Philly, after a loss, may be eager to rebound, but travel and potential Embiid absence could dampen their edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland -390, Philadelphia +310 | Cleveland win | High (75%) |
| Spread | Cleveland -10.5 (-108), Philadelphia +10.5 (-112) | Cleveland covers -10.5 | Moderate (60%) |
| Over/under | Over 233.5 (-112), Under 233.5 (-108) | Under 233.5 | High (70%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Cavaliers 208% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 233.5 35% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers at 208% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 66.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland is favored, especially at home, with strong defensive identity and Philadelphia potentially missing a key player. Expect a competitive game, but the Cavaliers' defense and home-court advantage should prevail. The total is likely to be lower than the bookmakers' line, aligning with historical head-to-head trends rather than season averages[1].
Predicted Score: Cleveland Cavaliers 111 – Philadelphia 76ers 103