Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Ceará – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio São Januário
Game Overview
Brazil Campeonato Serie A clash between Vasco da Gama (home) and Ceará. Vasco da Gama is slightly favored with home advantage but sitting 15th place with poor recent form, while Ceará holds 10th position with slightly better form and motivation to climb the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama has a record of 4W-1D-8L with 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Ceará stands at 5W-3D-5L, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Recent runs show both teams somewhat inconsistent, but Ceará demonstrates slightly better defensive stability and more points in last five games (18 vs 13 points overall).
- Seven meetings: balanced history with 2 wins each and 3 draws. Recent matches show close contests, suggesting no distinct dominance.
- No specific injury report found, so assume typical squad availability for both teams.
- Home advantage for Vasco da Gama at Estádio São Januário, but they have underperformed at home this season. No notable external disruptions reported.
- Ceará, sitting higher in the table, appear more motivated to maintain or improve standing. Vasco da Gama needs points but recent inconsistency may affect confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Vasco da Gama: -111, Draw: 225, Ceará: 330 | Vasco da Gama | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Vasco da Gama -0.5: -110, Ceará +50: -110 | Vasco da Gama -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2: -128, Under 2: 108 | Under 2 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vasco da Gama 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Vasco da Gama win; Spread: Vasco da Gama -0.5; Over/Under: Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0