Match Analysis: Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 8:06 PM UTC
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
Game Overview
The Denver Broncos visit the Indianapolis Colts, both teams coming off 1-0 starts this NFL season. Odds slightly favor Denver as a narrow favorite on the moneyline and spread, with a moderately low total points line indicating expectations of a moderately defensive contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 1-0 with solid recent form. Colts have been slightly more productive offensively with Daniel Jones showing efficient passing (75% completion, 2 TDs, 0 INTs last game). Broncos' QB Bo Nix had a more mixed performance (62% completion, 1 TD, 2 INTs). Colts demonstrated a strong defense holding Miami to 12 points, suggesting toughness at home.
- Recent H2H data is limited this season but market lines and public sentiment reflect a competitive matchup, with line movement indicating slight caution on Broncos as favorites due to offensive consistency questions.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting QBs or key offensive weapons for either team, which supports a clean execution level from both sides.
- The game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, giving the Colts home field advantage. Weather and travel conditions favor the Colts, as Denver travels with minimal external disruptions noted.
- Both teams are early in the season and motivated to maintain undefeated records. Colts, playing at home, have extra incentive to defend their turf and capitalize on local fan support.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Denver Broncos: -130, Indianapolis Colts: +110 | Indianapolis Colts | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Denver Broncos -1.5 (-115), Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (-105) | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 42.5 (-118), Under 42.5 (-102) | Under 42.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts 20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 42.5 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Indianapolis Colts at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indianapolis Colts moneyline win
Predicted Score: Indianapolis Colts 24 – Denver Broncos 19