Match Analysis: CF Estrela vs Vitória SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora, Portugal
Game Overview
CF Estrela Amadora hosts Vitória SC in a Portugal Primeira Liga clash where Vitória SC are clear favorites given their higher league standing and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vitória SC is currently 5th in the league with 54 points (14W, 12D, 6L) and a solid recent form (WWLWW), while Estrela sits 15th with 29 points (7W, 8D, 17L) and inconsistent recent results (WLLWL). Vitória SC has scored nearly double the goals of Estrela and conceded fewer, indicating stronger overall team performance.
- In the last 4 meetings, Vitória SC holds a dominant record with 3 wins and 1 draw, winning 75% of all encounters. They also tend to control the game from the first halves.
- Estrela will be missing key left back Guilherme Montoia and midfielder Robinho. Vitória SC’s squad is mostly intact but lost defender Tiago Silva recently, with offensive duties shifting more to veterans Nelson Oliveira and Gustavo Silva.
- The match is played at Estrela's home ground, Estadio Jose Gomes, which gives some home advantage, yet Vitória SC's better squad depth and form offset this. No major external disruptions noted.
- Vitória SC is motivated to strengthen their top 5 league position and maintain momentum, whereas Estrela is fighting to climb out of relegation-threatened spots, which could influence their cautious approach.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +245, away: +112, draw: +230 | Vitória SC | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | home +25: +100, away -0.25: -120 | Vitória SC -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | over 2.25: -102, under 2.25: -118 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vitória SC 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vitória SC at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vitória SC moneyline win
Predicted Score: Vitória SC 2 – 1 CF Estrela