Match Analysis: Bragantino-SP vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
Game Overview
Bragantino-SP, ranked 8th, faces struggling Sport Recife, who are 20th in the Campeonato Brasileiro standings. Bragantino is demonstrating stronger recent form with more wins and goals scored compared to Sport Recife's poor away form and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bragantino has a record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 11 goals in 12 league matches, while Sport Recife has 0 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with only 5 goals scored and 18 conceded in 11 matches, reflecting their struggle this season.
- Across 7 matches, Bragantino leads with 3 wins, Sport Recife has 1, and 3 ended in draws. This season, Bragantino won the only previous meeting showing superiority.
- No critical injury information was reported for either team ahead of the fixture, implying likely full-strength squads.
- Bragantino playing at home with familiar conditions and better squad depth; no adverse weather or travel issues reported for either side.
- Bragantino is motivated to consolidate a top-half position while Sport Recife fights to escape relegation zones, but recent poor form suggests motivation alone is unlikely to bridge quality gap.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -118, away: 330, draw: 245 | Bragantino-SP | ★★★★☆ 76% |
Spread | home: -118, away: -102 | Bragantino-SP -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | over: -118, under: -102 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bragantino-SP 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bragantino-SP to win on the moneyline, cover -0.5 spread, and match going under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0