Match Analysis: Kyle Smith vs Connor Meanwell – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Windsor Park, Belfast, Northern Ireland
Game Overview
Kyle Smith faces Connor Meanwell in a 4-round super middleweight boxing match on September 13, 2025, at Windsor Park, Belfast. Kyle Smith is the overwhelming favorite according to live bookmaker moneyline odds, while Connor Meanwell is seen as the underdog with extremely long odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kyle Smith holds significant experience and a more solid professional record compared to Connor Meanwell, who is less established. Smith's recent form indicates dominance and control in short bouts, often finishing on points or early rounds. Meanwell has less exposure at this level and fewer knockout wins.
- No prior head-to-head matches between Kyle Smith and Connor Meanwell are recorded, making this their first professional meeting.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight, indicating both come into the bout at full health.
- The fight is part of a high-profile undercard event, which could motivate both fighters. The venue in Belfast may slightly favor Kyle Smith if he has local support, though neither is from Northern Ireland. The short 4-round format reduces endurance impact, favoring the more aggressive, experienced boxer.
- Kyle Smith pursues continued dominance and stepping stone to a higher title fight. Connor Meanwell can be highly motivated as an underdog with an opportunity to upset and gain recognition, but historical betting support heavily leans towards Smith.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kyle Smith: -15000, Connor Meanwell: 2000 | Kyle Smith | ★★★★★ 92% |
| Spread | Kyle Smith -3.5 rounds: -120, Connor Meanwell +3.5 rounds: +100 | Kyle Smith -3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5 rounds: +150, Under 3.5 rounds: -180 | Under 3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kyle Smith -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Kyle Smith at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kyle Smith to win by moneyline, covering the spread, and the fight to go under 3.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Kyle Smith wins by TKO or unanimous decision within 3 rounds
