Match Analysis: Portland Timbers vs New York Red Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Providence Park, Portland, Oregon
Game Overview
The Portland Timbers host the New York Red Bulls in a tightly matched MLS contest. Both teams have similar win percentages and recent form, but Portland holds a moderate edge playing at home with a slightly better goal difference and shot conversion.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland Timbers have a 36% win rate with 1.86 goals per game and 1.74 conceded, while New York Red Bulls have a 34% win rate, scoring 1.59 and conceding 1.38 goals per game. Both teams have recorded wins in their last 5 matches, indicating solid recent form.
- Historically, matches have been competitive with a balanced outcome ratio; no strong dominance by either side. Recent encounters suggest tight scorelines and competitive play.
- No major injuries reported currently affecting starting lineups for either side, maintaining squad stability.
- Playing at Portlandβs home Providence Park gives the Timbers a familiar environment and slight crowd advantage. Weather and travel conditions are typical with no reported disruptions.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points to improve playoff positioning late in the MLS season, but Portland has slightly more urgency given league standings and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Portland Timbers: +110, New York Red Bulls: +226, Draw: +260 | Portland Timbers | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Portland Timbers -0.5: +105, New York Red Bulls +50: -139 | Portland Timbers -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -147, Under 2.5: +111 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Portland Timbers 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Portland Timbers at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland Timbers to win on moneyline, cover the -0.5 spread, and expect over 2.5 goals in total.
Predicted Score: 2-1