Match Analysis: Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
 - Time: 12:40 AM UTC
 - Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
 
Game Overview
Featherweight matchup featuring Diego Lopes, a 30-year-old with a 26-7 record and longer reach, against Jean Silva, a 28-year-old with a 16-2 record and a strong technical striking profile. Silva enters as a UFC favorite riding an undefeated UFC record with recent finishes, while Lopes recently lost a title fight but has shown toughness and durability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Silva is undefeated in the UFC and has finished his last five opponents, showing excellent striking and grappling defense. Lopes has a solid overall record, coming off a title fight loss and known for durability but is more vulnerable to counters.
 - No direct H2H fights recorded between Lopes and Silva.
 - No major injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the fight.
 - Fight at home territory Frost Bank Center with no external disruptions reported.
 - Lopes motivated to rebound after title fight loss; Silva motivated to maintain undefeated UFC streak and extend dominance.
 
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diego Lopes: +195, Jean Silva: -238 | Jean Silva | β β β β β 72% | 
| Spread | Diego Lopes +5.5: +120, Jean Silva -5.5: -165 | Jean Silva -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% | 
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -166, Under 2.5: +130 | Under 2.5 rounds | β β β ββ 60% | 
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick | 
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean Silva -12% | 
| Spread | N/A | 
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 43% | 
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jean Silva to win by decision
Predicted Score: Jean Silva wins by unanimous decision (rounds 5)