Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Corinthians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
A tightly contested Brasileirão match between Fluminense and Corinthians, both with mixed recent form and a narrow historical head-to-head balance. Fluminense has a slight edge at home, while Corinthians will be missing key players due to injury and suspension.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense has scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches but failed to score in 2 consecutive recent matches. Corinthians has scored 7 goals in their last 5 games but conceded many penalties this season, showing some defensive vulnerabilities.
- Historically very balanced with 13 Corinthians wins, 12 Fluminense wins, and 11 draws, indicating a closely matched rivalry.
- Fluminense misses Samuel Xavier (injury). Corinthians have Breno Bidon suspended, and André Carrillo and Raniele injured, weakening their squad depth.
- Fluminense plays at home, giving them a familiar environment advantage. Both teams are mid-table contenders, likely motivated to secure points for positioning.
- Fluminense’s recent home form is stronger, and a win would solidify their position above Corinthians who are fighting to close the gap.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense: 109, Corinthians: 315, Draw: 190 | Fluminense | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Fluminense -0.25: -130, Corinthians +25: 110 | Fluminense -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 1.75: -134, Under 1.75: 112 | Under 1.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense 25% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 1.75 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense moneyline win, Fluminense -0.25 spread, Under 1.75 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0