Match Analysis: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs New Mexico State Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana
Game Overview
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs host the New Mexico State Aggies in a Conference USA matchup. Louisiana Tech opens as a strong favorite after a mixed start to their season, while New Mexico State remains undefeated but is an underdog on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico State (2-0) is showing a solid defense allowing only 8.5 points per game, while Louisiana Tech (1-1) has struggled offensively averaging 15.5 points but has shown some defensive resilience. New Mexico State's offense is balanced with passing (239.5 ypg) and modest rushing, compared to Louisiana Tech's lower offensive output.
- Recent matchups favor Louisiana Tech, but New Mexico State has had success as underdog in several recent games and the Bulldogs have notable struggles when favored by double digits in September.
- No significant injuries reported for either team to affect starters or key roles. Both teams appear near full strength.
- Louisiana Tech benefits from home field advantage at Joe Aillet Stadium and local fan support. Weather or conditions not currently impacting.
- New Mexico State motivated to maintain undefeated status and prove themselves against a favored opponent. Louisiana Tech motivated to rebound from recent loss and assert conference dominance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -380, away: +300 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home: -10 -108, away: +10 -112 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -10 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 43.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 43.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs moneyline and spread. Expect a moderately close game with Bulldogs winning comfortably but the Aggies challenging the spread. Total points should remain under the 43.5 line due to strong defenses and moderate offenses.
Predicted Score: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 27 – New Mexico State Aggies 14