Match Analysis: Fortaleza vs Vitoria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo
Game Overview
Fortaleza hosts Vitoria in a low-stakes relegation battle with both teams struggling offensively and defensively in the Brasileirão Serie A. Fortaleza is lower in the table and has poor form but benefits from home advantage, while Vitoria has slightly better overall form yet defensive issues away from home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fortaleza has 3 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses so far, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Vitoria has a slightly better record with 4 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.8 per game. Both have low scoring outputs and have shown defensive vulnerabilities.
- Recent encounters show close contests with draws and narrow wins; historical H2H data indicates no clear dominance, reflecting the balanced competitive nature between the two sides, emphasizing a tightly contested match.
- No major injury news reported for either team affecting key starters, indicating lineups will likely be near full strength.
- Home advantage significant for Fortaleza, historically home teams win 41.5% of Serie A matches. The match venue favors Fortaleza’s possession style, with expected control of the game flow.
- Both teams fight to avoid relegation with closely packed points near the bottom; Fortaleza’s slightly worse standing creates pressure to secure points at home, while Vitoria aims to maintain its marginally better position.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza: -118, Vitoria: 350, Draw: 230 | Fortaleza | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Fortaleza -0.5 -118, Vitoria +50 -102 | Fortaleza -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -105, Under 2.25 -115 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fortaleza moneyline win, Fortaleza -0.5 spread, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0