Match Analysis: Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Elks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Game Overview
The Toronto Argonauts (4-8) host the Edmonton Elks (5-7) in a pivotal late-season CFL clash at BMO Field. Toronto is a favorite at home with a slight edge in experience despite a losing record, while Edmonton comes off a strong rushing performance and win over Calgary.
Key Factors to Consider
- Edmonton enters with momentum after a 31-19 win featuring RB Justin Rankin's 204 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Toronto struggles defensively against the run (worst in CFL), and Edmonton's Rankin is a major offensive threat. Toronto QB Nick Arbuckle has produced over 300 passing yards in recent games, but the Argonauts' defense ranks low overall.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but Torontoβs home advantage and favored moneyline suggest sportsbooks give them a narrow edge. Edmontonβs effective rushing attack, led by Rankin, is critical to their chances to cover the spread.
- No major injury information reported for starters. Both QBs expected to start: Toronto's Nick Arbuckle and Edmonton's Cody Fajardo. No notable absences reported that would heavily influence outcome.
- Playing at home benefits Toronto; BMO Field conditions favor passing offenses. Edmonton must travel west to east but are used to CFL travel schedules. Weather not expected to impact game significantly.
- Both teams are fighting for postseason relevance late in the season; Edmonton riding confidence from last gameβs win and strong rushing. Toronto needs a win at home to improve playoff hopes and leverage crowd support.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Argonauts -196, Edmonton Elks +162 | Toronto Argonauts | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Edmonton Elks +3.5 -104, Toronto Argonauts -3.5 -118 | Toronto Argonauts -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 56.5 -114, Under 56.5 -106 | Over 56.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Argonauts -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 56.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Argonauts moneyline
Predicted Score: Toronto Argonauts 30 – Edmonton Elks 24