Match Analysis: Athletic Bilbao vs Alavés – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: San Mamés Barria
Game Overview
Athletic Bilbao hosts Alavés in a La Liga matchup with Bilbao as favorites due to their strong home form and historical edge in head-to-head matches. Alavés are considered strong underdogs with limited recent success against Bilbao.
Key Factors to Consider
- Athletic Bilbao shows solid recent form, especially at home, with a generally strong defensive record and effective attack. Alavés have struggled against Bilbao historically and tend to underperform away in this fixture.
- Out of 31 meetings, Athletic Bilbao have won 17 times, Alavés 6 times, with 8 draws; goal difference heavily favors Bilbao (45-24). Recent trends also show a dominance of Bilbao winning or drawing to avoid losses at home.
- No major injury news reported for either side affecting key starters, indicating both teams will likely field strong lineups.
- No significant external factors such as weather or travel disadvantages reported; the game is a home fixture for Bilbao, which adds to their advantage.
- Athletic Bilbao motivated to maintain strong home records early in the season; Alavés under pressure to improve away form but face tough historical matchup.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao: -179, Alavés: 525, Draw: 290 | Athletic Bilbao | ★★★★☆ 76% |
Spread | Athletic Bilbao -1: 100, Alavés +1: -120 | Athletic Bilbao -1 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Athletic Bilbao to win on the moneyline; Athletic Bilbao -1 on the spread; Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0